Ethan Mollick cites 1870–1920 US growth boom as a model for AI optimism

Ethan Mollick, a Wharton professor, says the book "Rise and Fall of American Growth" describes a one-time surge in US living standards from 1870 to 1920, when plumbing, electricity and central heating spread widely.

He notes the book, published in 2016, argues no change of similar scale has occurred since the 1970s. Mollick says optimism about AI should prompt the questions of what happens if AI brings a similar boom and how to make it go right.

He made the point in response to a post by Pushmeet Kohli of Google DeepMind, who says the company sees a phase transition in the pace of scientific discovery across its projects. Mollick argues it is not odd to think "this time is different," citing past industrial revolutions and saying the post-World War Two steady growth regime need not last forever.