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Published
22/100

Ethan Mollick cites a 1870–1920 growth boom as a template for AI optimism

AIEthan Mollick says the book "Rise and Fall of American Growth" describes a one-time surge in US living standards from 1870 to 1920, when plumbing, electricity, and central heating spread widely. He notes the book, written in 2016, argues that no change of similar scale has occurred since the 1970s.
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A favorite optimistic view of the future of AI is from a pessimistic book that not about AI: "Rise and Fall of American Growth," which argues that we had a one-time explosion in living standards from 1870 and 1920 (& later outside the US).

In 1870: no toilets, no city plumbing, lamp light, no central heating, little public health, horses for local travel, etc. In 50 years, all of this was solved & the nation was electrified. In the next fifty modern medicine, air travel and telecommunication happened.

The book then points out that we have had no changes in lifestyle of similar scale since the 1970s. Written in 2016, it argued that we would likely never experience another boom like the "Special Century." The positive view of AI should make us ask "But what if we do?" and "How do we make it all go right?"

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Ethan Mollick · x.comPublished · added here

Original title: A favorite optimistic view of the future of AI is from a pessimistic book that not about AI: "Rise and Fall of American Growth," which ar...