Roon questions why AI scientific-discovery odds stay below 95%

Roon, an X account, asks why the odds of AI making major scientific discoveries would not exceed 95%.

In the post, roon cites AlphaFold's work, which won the 2018 Nobel Prize, and OpenAI's Fields Medal-level results this year. Roon also links to a survey in which 58% of Anthropic staff expect Claude to make a Nobel Prize-level discovery by 2027. The post poses the question and does not state a probability estimate of its own.