GPT-4 could do 4 minutes of independent work with a 50% chance of success.
Current models can do multiple weeks of work, and January 2026 is a reasonable cut-off for the moment agentic work started.
Large productivity impacts before that would mostly be confined to coding.
Steve was very early on this. But he’s exactly right—chatbot era was never going to be a huge productivity boost. Analyses should put the line at January 2026; agentic AI is where productivity gains are.View quoted post on X
Ethan Mollick · x.comPublished
Original title: GPT-4 could do 4 minutes of independent work with a 50% chance of success.
