O'Reilly builds AI agent to test NFL 'establish the run' claim on play-by-play data
Overview
O'Reilly Radar published a walkthrough by Chester Ismay and Michelle Smith describing an AI analyst agent that checks the NFL "establish the run" claim against nflverse play-by-play data.
The agent has a read-only data tool and about 250,000 plays from five NFL seasons.
The raw numbers appear to support the claim. Over those five seasons, teams with the highest run share won 77.7% of games, against 19.2% for teams with the lowest run share. The authors note that this gap mostly reflects teams already ahead running out the clock. When the data is limited to first-half running plays in games within three points at halftime, the result reverses: the highest-run teams won 46.3% of the time and the lowest-run teams won 55.3%.
Written by AI from the articles below · updated Oct 19, 6:36 PM ET
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- O'Reilly RadarBlogO'Reilly builds an AI agent to test NFL "establish the run" claims with data
AIO'Reilly's Monday Morning Agent series gives an AI agent a read-only tool and about 250,000 plays from five NFL seasons to test the claim "establish the run." Over the last five seasons, teams with the highest run share won 77.7% of games versus 19.2% for the lowest, but that gap mostly reflects teams already ahead running out the clock. Limiting the data to first-half running in games within three points at halftime reversed the result, with the highest-run teams winning 46.3% of the time and the lowest winning 55.3%.
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