METR says AI now drives much of AI capability growth, citing staff surveys
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METROfficialMETR says staff surveys are consistent with AI driving current accelerationAIMETR says interviews and surveys with its staff are consistent with AI usage driving current acceleration, though it calls this evidence very hard to interpret. Staff self-report dramatic productivity gains, but say the most important AI R&D contributions are not yet fully automated.
- METROfficialMETR believes AI R&D now drives most of recent capability gains
AIMETR says it believes most of the recent acceleration in AI capability improvement is now driven by AI being used in AI R&D, but it is not certain and found no consensus among Anthropic staff. It says non-AI factors likely played a large role in late 2025.
- METROfficialMETR estimates AI capability growth is about 2x its 2024–2025 pace
AIMETR says it believes the pace of AI capability growth on well-specified tasks as of October 2026 is likely about 2x its pace from March 2024 to October 2025. METR says it is highly uncertain and would not be surprised by a range of 1.3x to 3x.