Chollet: AI progress tracks exponential growth, but capex is growing faster and may be unsustainable

François Chollet, on X, argues that most AI progress measures from 2023 to 2026 fit an exponential curve, while AI capital expenditure over the same period has grown slightly super-exponentially.

He concludes that this externally funded growth is unsustainable, and that sustained exponential progress will require exponential profits to close the resource loop. The report is a single social media post from Chollet; it does not include supporting data or the specific measures he used.