Chollet: AI progress tracks exponential growth while capex grows faster

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François Chollet argues that most AI progress measures from 2023 to 2026 fit an exponential curve, while AI capital expenditure over the same period has grown slightly super-exponentially. He concludes that such externally funded growth is unsustainable, so sustained exponential progress will require matching exponential profits to close the resource loop.

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François Chollet

@fchollet

Most measures of AI progress closely fit an exponential over the 2023-2026 period. Meanwhile AI capex over the same period has been slightly super-exponential (i.e. the rate of growth itself is increasing).

So if you model AI as a system that takes as input external investment and outputs AI progress, that system has a slightly sub-linear response.

But super-exponential injection of *external* resources is not sustainable in the long-term. To achieve sustained exponential progress, the AI industry will need to achieve matching exponential profits -- it will need to close the resource loop.

Source: François Chollet · x.comPublished Oct 8, 5:37 PM ET · added here 7:48 PM ET

Chollet: AI progress tracks exponential growth while capex grows faster

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