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Gergely Orosz compares 1999 Amazon doubts to today's AI capital spending

1 article1 sourcesince Oct 18Last article 1h ago ·

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Gergely Orosz, a software engineer and newsletter writer, posted on X on October 18, 2026 that in 1999, when Amazon was 5 years old, mainstream opinion held that the company would collapse.

He says the critics argued that its heavy upfront capital investment was for a future that would never arrive, in which companies sold through middlemen. Orosz says he hears similar arguments today about Anthropic and OpenAI. The post is his opinion, and the report contains no figures or evidence for either comparison.

Written by AI from the articles below · updated Oct 18, 10:57 AM ET

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Latest developmentOct 18, 10:38 AM ET
A reminder that in 1999 (when Amazon was 5 years old) mainstream wisdom was that the company will collapse and be wiped out. Too much upf...

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The articles in this story. Times are ET.

Oct 18
  1. Gergely OroszX
    A reminder that in 1999 (when Amazon was 5 years old) mainstream wisdom was that the company will collapse and be wiped out. Too much upf...

    AIA reminder that in 1999 (when Amazon was 5 years old) mainstream wisdom was that the company will collapse and be wiped out. Too much upfront capital investment made for a future that will never come (companies selling thru a middleman.) I hear similar takes about Ant+OAI today

    Image from @GergelyOrosz's post

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