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Epoch AI tracks AI chip compute sales growth, from 6x in 2023 to 2.5x per year since 2024

2 articles2 sourcessince Oct 28Last article 1h ago ·

Overview

AISummary of 2 articles

Epoch AI says the computing power of AI chips sold each quarter has grown 2.5 times per year since the start of 2024, down from about 6 times in 2023, a period led by Nvidia's H100.

Epoch says some evidence suggests growth slowed further and that this could be a lull between chip generations, but notes quarterly sales data is noisy and its data ends as Nvidia begins shipping its next-generation chips.

A separate Epoch estimate puts the growth of global AI chip computing capacity at a doubling roughly every 9 months. That estimate uses quarterly sales figures from Nvidia, Google, AMD, Amazon, Huawei and Cambricon, measured in H100-equivalents (H100e).

Written by AI from the articles below · updated Oct 29, 4:25 PM ET

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Latest developmentOct 29, 3:56 PM ET
AI chip computing power sold per quarter grew 2.5× yearly since 2024

Developments

2 developments

  1. Oct 29, 3:56 PM ET · 1 article
    Epoch AI finds AI chip compute sales grew 2.5x per year since early 2024
    Epoch AI: AI chip computing power sold per quarter grew 2.5× yearly since 2024
  2. Oct 28, 8:00 PM ET · 1 article
    Epoch AI estimates global AI computing capacity added per quarter doubles every nine months
    Epoch AI: Global AI computing capacity is doubling every 9 months, Epoch AI estimates

Article timeline

The articles in this story. Times are ET.

Oct 29
  1. Epoch AIOfficial
    AI chip computing power sold per quarter grew 2.5× yearly since 2024

    AIEpoch AI says the computing power of AI chips sold each quarter has grown 2.5× per year since the start of 2024, down from about 6× in 2023 when Nvidia's H100 led. Some evidence suggests growth slowed further, but Epoch notes quarterly sales are noisy and its data ends as Nvidia begins shipping its next-generation chips.

    Stacked bar graph showing quarterly AI chip computing capacity growth from 2024 Q1 to 2026 Q2 by designer, with a 2.5× per year trend line.
Oct 28
  1. Epoch AIOfficial
    Global AI computing capacity is doubling every 9 months, Epoch AI estimates

    AIEpoch AI estimates that the computing capacity of AI chips sold worldwide is doubling roughly every 9 months. The estimate uses quarterly sales figures from six AI chip designers: Nvidia, Google, AMD, Amazon, Huawei and Cambricon. Capacity is measured in H100-equivalents (H100e), with an exponential trend fitted to the capacity added each quarter.

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