Damodaran and Armstrong question Anthropic's IPO valuation and AI labor effects
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Rohan PaulXDamodaran values Anthropic at $1.475T and flags its voting structure and compute commitmentsAIAswath Damodaran values Anthropic at $1.475 trillion in a long post. He says seven co-founders hold 50.1% of votes through a single share, which he compares unfavorably to Kim Jong Un's power. He says the $80.7 billion first-half loss is mostly a $72 billion non-cash bond charge, with a real operating loss of just over $8 billion, and calls over $600 billion in compute commitments the biggest risk.
- EveryBlogPickEvan Armstrong analyzes Anthropic's S-1 and whether a $2 trillion valuation holds
AIEvan Armstrong says Anthropic's S-1 shows revenue of about $11.6 billion in Q2 2026 and net revenue retention near 900 percent. He argues the valuation depends on Anthropic's next models staying ahead, since frontier models lose revenue within about six months. He also notes that its 85 percent reported gross margin falls to 45 percent when training compute is counted.
- Rohan PaulXDamodaran says AI's $10–15 trillion market hinges on replacing human workers
AIAswath Damodaran, NYU Stern professor and "Dean of Valuation," argues that AI's $10 to $15 trillion addressable market is largely a story of replacing people rather than serving as a tool. He warns that if this scenario materializes, half of white-collar workers could lose their jobs, raising questions about who will buy the products and services and how society will cope with lost income and meaning.
- Rohan PaulXDamodaran argues Anthropic's IPO will be priced on run-rate revenue
AIAswath Damodaran argues that Anthropic's IPO will be priced on run-rate revenue rather than cash flows, since its losses rule out earnings multiples. He says a $1.5T to $2T value requires very fast growth and operating margins of 30% or more, and notes that ARR is defined differently by Anthropic and OpenAI.
