Tunguz projects Google Cloud and SpaceX could each reach $1 trillion revenue by 2030

Tomasz Tunguz projects that Google Cloud and SpaceX could each reach a $1 trillion annualized revenue run rate in 2030, with AWS following in 2032.

The projection starts from Q3 2026 segment revenue of $30.7 billion for Google Cloud and $46.0 billion for AWS, and assumes current growth rates decline 15% each year. Tunguz says the forecast holds only if power, silicon and balance sheets hold.

Elon Musk replied "Yup" to an X post saying SpaceX could add $1 trillion in annual revenue from 100 GW per year of orbital AI compute priced at $10 per watt. The post says pricing at $3–5 trillion is possible because satellites keep generating revenue while running in orbit. Musk's reply does not add figures or conditions of its own.