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Published
22/100

Amjad Masad says AI growth may follow overlapping S-curves, not sustained exponentials

AIAmjad Masad says most real-world growth follows S-curves rather than long-term exponentials, citing his time at Facebook where apparent exponential growth came from overlapping S-curves driven by breakthroughs and adoption waves. He argues AI is probably the same, though he says progress need not slow and sustained exponential growth is not automatic.
Amjad MasadVerified on X
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Very few things in nature are true long-term exponentials. Most follow S-curves.

I saw this when I worked at Facebook. What looked like clean exponential growth was actually a series of overlapping S-curves, each driven by technological breakthroughs and/or adoption waves.

AI is probably the same. That doesn’t mean progress will have to slow down, but sustained exponential growth isn’t automatic either.

Séb Krier@sebkrier
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Amjad Masad · x.comPublished · added here

Original title: Very few things in nature are true long-term exponentials. Most follow S-curves.

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