Epoch AI finds China more exposed than US to chip supply shocks

China is more exposed than the US to semiconductor supply disruptions, with semiconductor producers earning $15.2 per $1,000 of Chinese final demand in 2022 versus $5.7 for US spending.

In a combined Taiwan disruption and China–West decoupling scenario, Chinese advanced processor prices rise 17-fold and real gross national expenditure falls 3%, compared with about a 20% price rise and 0.6% fall for the US. The authors report the gap persists across robustness checks, though the exact size carries significant uncertainty.