METR says Anthropic has probably hit the 2x Responsible Scaling Policy acceleration threshold, and may now be running as high as 3x! 'We guess that a majority (perhaps ≈80%) of the current (October 2026) acceleration is due to AI.'
METR estimates AI drives most of Anthropic's recent capability acceleration
AIMETR published a risk assessment estimating that Anthropic has probably reached the 2x acceleration threshold in its Responsible Scaling Policy, and may be running as high as 3x. METR guesses about 80% of the acceleration as of October 2026 comes from AI itself.
AIWhy it matters.
The source gives METR's estimate that AI itself drives most of Anthropic's recent capability acceleration, with explicit uncertainty ranges and benchmark figures.
Andrew CurranVerified on X
@AndrewCurran_
Since August, a team within METR has worked with internal Anthropic information to assess whether AI itself is accelerating AI development. We are now publishing a report summarizing the results of this risk assessment.View quoted post on X
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Andrew Curran · x.comPublished · added here
Original title: METR says Anthropic has probably hit the 2x Responsible Scaling Policy acceleration threshold, and may now be running as high as 3x! 'We ...