We may be overestimating acceleration if we underweighted (1) non-AI factors in Anthropic’s research progress; (2) AECI’s focus on verifiable tasks; (3) reasons Anthropic’s early growth rate (2024–2025) was unusually low.
METR says it may be overestimating AI acceleration in three ways
AIMETR says it may be overestimating acceleration if it underweighted non-AI factors in Anthropic's research progress. It also flags AECI's focus on verifiable tasks and reasons Anthropic's unusually low early growth rate in 2024–2025.
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Original title: We may be overestimating acceleration if we underweighted (1) non-AI factors in Anthropic’s research progress; (2) AECI’s focus on verifi...