Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke estimates agentic commerce could replace 20% to 50% of current commerce while growing the total market by about 50%.
He cites project-based purchases, such as ordering 3D printing supplies for delivery by Friday, as mostly new demand that would not happen without AI. The post's author adds that differentiated, carefully crafted shopping experiences will grow while undifferentiated stores and platform marketplaces will struggle.
在 Agentic Commerce 的问题上，Tobi 不认为它会吞掉全部商业，可能替代其中 20% 到 50%，但同时会让整个盘子再做大 50% 左右，因为会出现大量新形态。例如“项目型商业”（project-based commerce）：比如周末想和孩子做 3D 打印项目，直接说“把耗材和需要的东西订好，周五前送到”。旅行、活动等场景同理。这类消费大多是增量的，没有 AI 的话人们根本不会去做。
Tobi 认为传统网站会让出一部分空间给 Agentic 电商，但整个蛋糕在变大。真正的分界不在你死我活之间，而在“千篇一律”与“独特而用心”之间。所有与众不同、精心打磨的商业体验（比如第五大道精品店式的体验）都会大幅增长；而毫无差异化的店铺和平台型市场则会消失或至少陷入挣扎！这是在说 Amazon 电商吧，带头 block agent 😅
来自 Vercel CEO Guillermo Rauch 对 Shopify 创始人兼 CEO Tobi Lütke 的访谈 - The Third Customer！
Source: indigo · x.comPublished · added here
