SemiAnalysis analyst Maya Barkin finds only about 2.3 GW of roughly 21 GW of US datacenter capacity in moratorium areas is likely to be delayed, excluding Texas's TCEQ pause.
The estimate is cited in The Economist, and the full analysis is in the SemiAnalysis newsletter. A quoted Economist reporter says moratoriums are "much more bark than bite," with local opposition more likely to shift project locations than block buildout.
Moratoriums aren't killing the US datacenter buildout.
Our analyst @mayabarkin finds only ~2.3 GW of ~21 GW in moratorium areas (excluding the TCEQ pause in Texas) is likely to be delayed, as cited in The Economist.
For more, read her report in the SemiAnalysis newsletter👇️
https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/everyone-says-datacenter-moratoriums
https://x.com/ArchieHall/status/2111159748582359534?s=20
A few reflections from travelling (w/ @ed_shackle, @sebwride++) through data-centre country in Michigan/Ohio in my latest for @TheEconomist. 1/ The issue really is moving votes to the Democrats. That's now visible in our polling, too (h/t @OwenWntr), but also in the scale of on-the-ground discontent. I'm quite a bit more bearish on the prospects for big new data-centre projects in blue states after the trip. 2/ I really didn't hear that much direct anti-AI sentiment. The mood much more was a cocktail of worries about local harms (water, electricity bills, house prices), plus a total distrust of businesses and politicians. Against that backdrop, assurances about the water usage of closed-loop cooling systems really don't cut through. And, though developers will doubtless get cannier at this, cash payoffs to communities can easily look like subterfuge and do little to help. 3/ Still, moratoriums are at this stage much more bark than bite (h/t @mayabarkin for the data there). Only about 2GW seems actually delayed. The bigger risk is deterring newer projects, but I'd still guess that affects the exact locations more than whether the build-out happens at all. 4/ The question I'm left with is what comes after data centres as the big AI political issue into next year. A few obvious candidates are: a big cyberattack, the sheer scale of AI-related PAC spending in the 2028 cycle, the early innings of job displacement. 5/ What the data-centre issue should tell us, I think, is that voters' hostility to new technologies that change their lives in unpleasant ways is vast—especially when those changes are less positive-sum than data centres. So, however mad you expect AI as a technology to make the next few years, scale that up accordingly to account for a much more scrambled politics. Do take a look at my piece on this here: https://www.economist.com/united-states/2026/10/15/the-impact-of-data-centre-discontent And at our Checks and Balances podcast, where I contributed a short diary featuring lots of conversations with voters https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2026/10/16/the-data-centre-backlash
Source: SemiAnalysis · x.comPublished · added here
