Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and why it likely won't

The essay argues that AI compresses the execution layer of software work while decision-making and accountability remain human, so AI is not yet replacing software engineers.

It cites AI-attributed layoffs at Block, Snap, and Intuit that the authors say were not driven by AI, and WARN Act filings in which only one company checked an AI box.

A Federal Reserve analysis is cited as finding software engineer employment growing about 3 percentage points per year more slowly after ChatGPT than a no-AI counterfactual.