AI existential risk probabilities are too unreliable to inform policy, Narayanan argues

Arvind Narayanan argues that AI existential risk probability estimates lack a reference class, a validated theory, and measurable forecaster skill, so they cannot justify public policy.

He reviews inductive, deductive, and subjective forecasting methods and finds none applicable to AI extinction risk.

The essay also argues that the forecasts that exist are likely inflated by selection bias and that policymakers should not restrict AI development on their basis.