WildChat-based simulation predicts OpenAI production misalignment rates within roughly 3x
AIOpenAI's alignment team found that re-generating 100,000 WildChat conversations with five recent OpenAI models predicted production failure rates across four orders of magnitude, with 95% of predictions within 1.04 orders of magnitude. The approach was weaker for agentic misalignment categories, where errors were about 37 times larger, and it still held roughly without access to chain-of-thought reasoning, with mean multiplicative error rising from 3.6x to 4.0x.
Why it matters: The post tests whether public chat data can predict real production failure rates, and where that prediction breaks down for agentic behavior.








