Tim Dettmers argues AGI will not happen due to physical computing limits

Tim Dettmers argues that AGI as commonly conceived ignores the physical constraints of computation, including memory movement costs and the exponential resources needed for linear progress.

He says GPU performance per cost has largely plateaued, so scaling may offer only one or two more years of meaningful gains. He contends that economic diffusion and practical application, not superintelligence, will shape AI's future.