# Nathan Lambert outlines how open models could avoid being swallowed by closed labs

> Original title: New talk on the open model economy. I wanted to break down the case of where open model builders should steer the economics of the indust...

- Source: Nathan Lambert
- Published: 2026-11-02T21:34:05.000Z
- Bad Influence: https://badinfluence.news/items/xx5gvg5tso8r12zeinuteh2kk
- Original: https://x.com/natolambert/status/2117369681468399708

## Summary

Nathan Lambert says open model builders should cut inference costs sharply on specialized, repetitive tasks rather than compete on cost with frontier labs in general agents. He argues the open model economy is fragmented, making it hard to turn application revenue into funding for the next model cycle. His talk, a practice recording for Fireworks Forge 2026 in San Francisco on 3 November 2026, covers whether people use open models, how close they are to the frontier, and how open models win.

## Post

New talk on the open model economy. I wanted to break down the case of where open model builders should steer the economics of the industry, if we want to avoid being swallowed by OpenAI and Anthropic in due time. This rests fully on being able to drive the cost of inference down dramatically on specialized, repetitive tasks, rather than trying to compete on cost with the frontier labs in any general agent.

A core piece of it is how the open model economy is very fragmented, leaving an interesting puzzle we need to solve to get revenue from applications to feed back into the next model cycle. This is a very near-term problem as closed labs scale rapidly.

This talk investigates:
Are people using open models?
How close are open models to the frontier?
Mapping the open model economy
How open models win

This is a practice recording of my talk "How Open Models Win" for Fireworks Forge 2026 in San Francisco (3 November 2026), which will have improvements over this one.

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