# Amjad Masad says AI growth may follow overlapping S-curves, not sustained exponentials

> Original title: Very few things in nature are true long-term exponentials. Most follow S-curves.

- Source: Amjad Masad
- Published: 2026-11-09T17:58:14.000Z
- Bad Influence: https://badinfluence.news/items/wxd2bpzubzqg7knvlawh4f0q8
- Original: https://x.com/amasad/status/2119852075135934847

## Summary

Amjad Masad says most real-world growth follows S-curves rather than long-term exponentials, citing his time at Facebook where apparent exponential growth came from overlapping S-curves driven by breakthroughs and adoption waves. He argues AI is probably the same, though he says progress need not slow and sustained exponential growth is not automatic.

## Post

Very few things in nature are true long-term exponentials. Most follow S-curves.

I saw this when I worked at Facebook. What looked like clean exponential growth was actually a series of overlapping S-curves, each driven by technological breakthroughs and/or adoption waves.

AI is probably the same. That doesn’t mean progress will have to slow down, but sustained exponential growth isn’t automatic either.

## Quoted post @sebkrier

> Updated version!

https://x.com/sebkrier/status/2119213426589278648