# METR estimates AI drives most of Anthropic's recent capability acceleration

> Original title: METR says Anthropic has probably hit the 2x Responsible Scaling Policy acceleration threshold, and may now be running as high as 3x! 'We ...

- Source: Andrew Curran
- Published: 2026-11-05T19:08:47.000Z
- Bad Influence: https://badinfluence.news/items/wh1jffb61k1kab4xso7zdfh67
- Original: https://x.com/AndrewCurran_/status/2118420279882092681

## Summary

METR published a risk assessment estimating that Anthropic has probably reached the 2x acceleration threshold in its Responsible Scaling Policy, and may be running as high as 3x. METR guesses about 80% of the acceleration as of October 2026 comes from AI itself. The report says its benchmark estimate has wide uncertainty, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.5 to 2.8x.

## Why it matters

The source gives METR's estimate that AI itself drives most of Anthropic's recent capability acceleration, with explicit uncertainty ranges and benchmark figures.

## Post

METR says Anthropic has probably hit the 2x Responsible Scaling Policy acceleration threshold, and may now be running as high as 3x! 'We guess that a majority (perhaps ≈80%) of the current (October 2026) acceleration is due to AI.'

![](https://badinfluence.news/api/img-proxy?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FHWYkBLVaYAAmbLt.jpg&mode=thumb&exp=1794096000&sig=256f6231f62e1a09)

## Quoted post @METR_Evals

> Since August, a team within METR has worked with internal Anthropic information to assess whether AI itself is accelerating AI development.
> 
> We are now publishing a report summarizing the results of this risk assessment.

https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/2118412183860351084