# METR estimates AI capability growth is about 2x its 2024–2025 pace

> Original title: This report shares our three subjective conclusions about risk:

- Source: METR
- Published: 2026-11-05T18:36:40.000Z
- Bad Influence: https://badinfluence.news/items/vahaji3w9czzmujro3l4lycsz
- Original: https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/2118412196770398494

## Summary

METR says it believes the pace of AI capability growth on well-specified tasks as of October 2026 is likely about 2x its pace from March 2024 to October 2025. METR says it is highly uncertain and would not be surprised by a range of 1.3x to 3x.

## Post

This report shares our three subjective conclusions about risk:

1. We believe that, as of Oct 2026, the pace of capability growth on well-specified tasks is likely about 2x what it was from Mar 2024 to Oct 2025. We’re highly uncertain and would not be surprised by 1.3x–3x.