Narayanan argues AI job change will unfold over decades, not with one model release

Arvind Narayanan's ICML keynote argues that AI's labor impact will depend on slow organizational adaptation rather than a single lab milestone.

He cites reliability measurements showing agent accuracy rose much faster than reliability over the last 24 months, and points to software engineering and past technologies like electricity and ATMs.

He concludes that evaluation work and human judgment will become more central as building tasks are increasingly automated.