# METR says it may be overestimating AI acceleration in three ways

> Original title: We may be overestimating acceleration if we underweighted (1) non-AI factors in Anthropic’s research progress; (2) AECI’s focus on verifi...

- Source: METR
- Published: 2026-11-05T18:36:45.000Z
- Bad Influence: https://badinfluence.news/items/pma9912qn4kkormdzhqa734pm
- Original: https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/2118412217905475702

## Summary

METR says it may be overestimating acceleration if it underweighted non-AI factors in Anthropic's research progress. It also flags AECI's focus on verifiable tasks and reasons Anthropic's unusually low early growth rate in 2024–2025.

## Post

We may be overestimating acceleration if we underweighted (1) non-AI factors in Anthropic’s research progress; (2) AECI’s focus on verifiable tasks; (3) reasons Anthropic’s early growth rate (2024–2025) was unusually low.