# How a US data center freeze could slow AI compute growth

> Original title: 当美国无法建设数据中心，会对 AI 产生怎样的冲击

- Source: GeekPark
- Published: 2026-11-11T05:23:24.000Z
- Bad Influence: https://badinfluence.news/items/ngkd9h2ir9d7manxjv61qaswi
- Original: http://www.geekpark.net/news/373816

## Summary

GeekPark models an extreme scenario in which all planned, unstarted US data center projects are frozen, while already-under-construction projects finish on schedule. Under that assumption, US data center capacity would plateau at roughly 120 to 150GW around 2028, and annual effective compute growth would fall from about 12 to 15 times to about 6 times. The article argues AI would slow sharply but not stop, with labs shifting toward inference, post-training, and efficiency work.