# Epoch AI finds reasoning models' capability trend steeper, 1-2 ECI/year

> Original title: Frontier trends remain very similar. We still see a clear trend break for reasoning vs. non-reasoning models, although both trends are no...

- Source: Epoch AI
- Published: 2026-11-04T21:31:10.000Z
- Bad Influence: https://badinfluence.news/items/m05gff1kuhr8bml6a51p90v96
- Original: https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/2118093724286931445

## Summary

Epoch AI says frontier trends remain very similar, with a clear trend break between reasoning and non-reasoning models. Both trends are now slightly steeper, by 1-2 ECI per year.

## Post

Frontier trends remain very similar. We still see a clear trend break for reasoning vs. non-reasoning models, although both trends are now slightly steeper, by 1-2 ECI/year.

![Two scatter plots of ECI against release date for frontier models, under the previous method (left) and new method (right), with trend lines before and since reasoning models. The trends barely change: 6.2 and 15.7 ECI points per year under the previous method, 8.0 and 16.6 under the new one.](https://badinfluence.news/api/img-proxy?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FHWT7BFRbYAAytdR.jpg&mode=thumb&exp=1794096000&sig=5d75ab54e9d2599c)