Benedict Evans argues AI token prices face unstable, commodity-leaning equilibrium

Benedict Evans argues that token prices are unstable amid a supply crunch, and that foundation models may end up as low-margin commodity infrastructure rather than holding lasting pricing power.

He cites inference gross margins of 40-50% that exclude training costs, which currently exceed revenue, and compares the outlook with mobile data and semiconductor manufacturing.

He concludes that the outcome remains uncertain and that value capture above the model layer would require changes not yet visible.